Sunday, October 18, 2009

Globe poll shows Menino +20%; Flaherty's internals show half that

The Globe released the results of a new poll in the mayoral race that shows the gap between the incumbent and his challenger has closed somewhat. Mayor Thomas Menino, however, still has a 20-point advantage over City Councilor Michael Flaherty.

Flaherty has clearly gained some ground since the spring, when a similar poll showed a 38-point split, as voters have become more focused on the race, the field was narrowed by the preliminary election and some of the challengers allegations against the current administration -- most notably the missing email fiasco -- have failed to disappear.

Menino leads Flaherty in the two-man race, 52-32 percent, according to the poll. An incredible 69 percent of those surveyed have a favorable view of the mayor -- numbers that any politician would covet. Flaherty's favorability rating is at 50 percent.

Update (10/18): The Boston Phoenix reports that the Flaherty camp is questioning the Globe poll, as their internal numbers -- provided to the weekly paper -- show a much different picture. In that poll, Menino's lead among "likely voters" (which the Globe's poll did not exclusively include) shrinks to 10 percent -- and 7 just percent among "definite voters."

That seems more in keeping with a nervous City Hall, as I wrote about above. Thanks to the commenter who pointed me to the Phoenix on this.

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jimbo, the race is over! Menino wins easily

Jim said...

It is certainly looking that way. It's funny because I spoke to a friend just this weekend who works at City Hall. He's not an elected official, but works in a department and is by no means an "insider." He said he felt like the mayor's people were getting nervous and that his best guess was that Flaherty was going to win. This poll should, I think, calm the administration a bit.

Mary said...

Please, Jim, post the article in the Phoenix which questions the polling methods of the Globe. It's very instructive, to be sure.

Anonymous said...

The race has tightened considerably.The debate tonight could be significant if Menino really slips, or flips out. Flaherty must demonstrate that he is the change Boston needs. I still feel Menino will pull it out in the end,mainly because Flaherty just didnt ignite the voters,or make it a particularly interesting race.

Mary B. said...

Another bog (Change for Boston) was calling the Globe's style of writing about the poll "advocacy journalism." I've read enough of that kind of journalism to last a lifetime and it's not helpful for achieving an enlightened electorate. Of course, some would argue, that is exactly what some candidates desire.

Anonymous said...

Mary, you want to point that the Phoenix is a better, accurate paper than the Globe? If, the globe had Floon winning you wouldn't b saying SH--!
C,mon get over it Menino is the choice, get over it.

Anonymous said...

Why do these posts turn into anti-Jim or anti-Mary? They only post suggestions for discussion. Some of us want to get past the personal and on to the discussion. Good blog Jim.

Anonymous said...

I'm not attacking Mary, I'm just tired of the sour grapes. If her mayor's choice was leading the polls heck we wouldn't even be hearing from her!

Jim said...

I haven't heard any sour grapes. The Phoenix story and Flaherty's points seem plausible.

Anonymous said...

To Mary B: (And this is not intended to be personal)

So Change for Boston wants to be critical of the Globe for engaging in "advocacy journalism"? Mary, Mary, Mary, allow me to enlighten you: Change for Boston is not a "blog"; it is a propaganda machine for Michael Flaherty and sounds like the pot calling the kettle black. Why doesn't Change for Boston allow for any negative criticism of Flaherty - just Menino and the Administration? It is so obvious who is behind it. So I would take whatever they have to say - including what they say about the Globe with a large grain of salt. At least the Globe is even-handed of its criticism. ..in fact more so lately of Menino. To me, that Blog is irrelevant in my decision.

Anonymous said...

That is different, how, from page 4 of each East Boston Times?

Anonymous said...

I don't remember mentioning the Times or suggesting that they somehow are the voice of objectivity. I have no opinion on the Times nor did I indicate that their opinion about coverage of the race by the Boston Globe was praiseworthy either. Mary B brought up the "Change for Boston" Flog...that's where my comment was directed.

Anonymous said...

Ofcourse Jimbo agrees with Mary because he supported Yoon. Jim, don't deny it because your a progressive democrat and thats ok, not by me but anyway you know that the Floon ticket can't win

Jim said...

First of all, when did I "agree with Mary"? She suggested a link that was interesting, so I added it.

Secondly, sometimes I agree with Mary because I think she's right; sometimes I disagree, if I think she's wrong. Either way, she's a big girl and can stand up for herself.

Finally, Mary and I have never discussed the mayoral campaign, and I don't believe I told anyone who I voted for in the prelim. Of course, it is true that I favor ultra-progressive candidates, but Mayor Menino is about as liberal as a big-city mayor gets. I do think, however, that it's time for a change.

Anonymous said...

What did you expect the Flaherty campaign to say, 'Gee it's right, and we tried so hard'? Flaherty's only hope is that he comes out of this race with a base of support that he can use for a 2014 run for mayor, unless of course, if someone like Yoon, or an as yet unknown newcomer steals the spotlight from him. BTW, how did that Flaherty - Yoon gimmick really work out in the numbers game?

Jim said...

Sometimes it sounds like Menino supporters are angry that anyone would dare to run against him. Sure, he leads in the polls and it appears that he's going to win, but campaigns are good for democracy, no?

Anonymous said...

No Jim,not angry that someone would run against him but, angry at Sal Lamattina for not firing you for no support. This is politics and thats the game,you either play by it or don't play at all.
I guess what I'm saying is that if he doesn't fire you, you should resign because Sal is going to take alot of flack for this one.
That's how they think!

Anonymous said...

to 1:24--"thats how they think"--do you have any idea how sick and twisted that is? do you want people like that representing you,spending your tax dollars?
I will go a step further. I think Menino is,and has been mentally ill for some time.Too bad enough people havent figured it out.Here's a guarantee. Your property taxes are going up next year.Take that to the bank.The hanger ons will need raises for their work on the campaign. sick.

Anonymous said...

So if you work for the city and dont back everyone Menino does,because he gets involved in most elections,you should, and probably will be fired? I agree with 3:42,that is the behavior of an egomaniac with extreme mental issues.I know someone who got fired in 2007 because they didnt back Drago,Menino's choice. Even if you do work for the city,how could you possibly vote for Menino?

Anonymous said...

Are you guys telling me that Flaherty who never came to East Boston is a better canidate? He's never come here and doesn't care about east boston> Menino is our Mayor for Life

Anonymous said...

To 7:14,yes Flaherty is a better candidate.Whats Menino gonna do next,start wearing a Hitler moustache?I was going to add start screaming in German but since he hasnt mastered English yet- -

Anonymous said...

Doesn't matter how he speaks, its that he's effective. Flaherty was city councilor for 12 years and he has no accomplishments! none!

Anonymous said...

11:12,this administration is run like Putin in Russia. You have a Mayor who thinks he is a king,that orders you little people around like puppets and you all kiss his butt just to keep a job?If you are a city worker and dont make at least a hundred grand a year,its not worth even voting for this clown,let alone support him.Most people wouldnt humiliate themselves like that just for a weeks pay.But apparently you do. What city dept do you work for?

Anonymous said...

To 2:00 your just jealous the Mayor is going to win easily> You can attack all you want but I'd bet that I make alot more than you. Please don't hate the game, hate the player!!!!

Anonymous said...

Unless 2:54 is the police commissioner ,no you dont make more than me. Also I work in the private sector.What I said was true,and you know it. I presume you are a city employee judging by your remarks.I stand behind them,it isnt going to change my life much whoever the Mayor is. But the one we have is unhinged, and if yoou choose to be a political whore,thats your choice.

Anonymous said...

To 8:47 I really doubt that you even have a job, let alone have or make more money than me! You are ver foolish to believe that your so transparent because you are on the loser side but you don't care?
How's it feel to hate and lose at the same time? Vote Menino and do the right thing. Remember I told you so

Anonymous said...

Jimbo,this is my 3rd attempt to answer 5:37,none of the previous comments were posted. If this one doesnt get posted,I stop reading and responding because I know that you pick and choose.I dont take advise from some DPW worker looking for a new broom after the election.I work in the private sector,and dont hate anyone.You have an agenda,I am merely stating my opinion.You have sold your soul for a nickel and dime job,you live with it. I vote for who I want because unlike you I know these people work for me,not the other way around.Get a backbone for christsakes!!

Anonymous said...

To Anon 1:30, your not kidding anyone! You are probably unemployed and are very angry with all elected officials. You my friend are an angry person who doesn't get involved in your civic duty.
The bottom line is that Menono wins are you'll be even more angry but hey i will lend you some money.
Jim, thank you for being fair and posting all answers.

Anonymous said...

to 10:05 I have voted in every election since 1974.If you really want to do this "angry voter" a favor,why dont you try actually cleaning the streets you are hired to do. East Boston in my estimation is one of the dirtiest of Boston's 22 wards.Now the tricky part for you is who's bum are you gonna kiss in four years when we elect a new Mayor. Decisions,decisions.

Anonymous said...

To:8:49 Anon On top on being angry that Menino is going to win tomorrow, you are also angry about getting up there in age too!
You should be happy that Menino is great to the elderly.
If it makes you happy, I will kiss your bum. Sounds ridicolous doesnt it? Just like your points.
Jimbo your article on apple cider was great

Anonymous said...

10:28 you got enough bum kissing to do without mine being involved.Why dont you take some classes in English and learn how to spell.Just what this blog needs--a psychic from the DPW who cant spell words with more than five letters in them.You're the angry one because you are stupid , stuck with a dead end job,and have an apparent butt kissing fetish.Makes you a perfect city worker.

Anonymous said...

To 12:16 you sound like a child. what's the matter? you mad because you are getting old? its ok we all will get there eventually. Your right your butt must be wrinkled at your age.
Just do the right thing and vote Menino and calling people names isn't polite, didn't your mamma teach you that?
By the way, if you give us your address I'll be happy to send you money.
Jim, I must say you are fair.

Anonymous said...

to 1:21-use little words so you dont expose your ignorance again.Nobody is mad at you or Menino( because you hate your situation and job you feel the need to lash out at others due to your own regressed anger to achieve a sense of self worth,which you are lacking,and know it)--but explain to us as best you can(I realize your limited vocabulary) as to why voting for Menino is "the right thing"--sorry for calling you stupid,it wasnt needed,you already proved it once you wrote in.The floor is yours.If you make any sense I will send you some money,I know what the DPW pays.

Anonymous said...

To 4:11 I might be stupid but I had you answering all my posts. So let me ask you something, who's the stupid one now?
By the way Menino won, how do you feel today?

Anonymous said...

I wonder if Flaherty and Yoon will still dress alike?

Anonymous said...

to 4:11, I found your posts to be amusing,and I was bored. I feel that Boston wont do well at all for the next four years and that EB will continue to be overrun with illegals. I am retiring in a few years and moving to SC.Dont like the winters anymore, and as far as politics is concerned,you get the govt you deserve.So stick around and watch EB get worse and worse, and maybe you will move out too someday. Good luck to you.

Anonymous said...

to 12:06, you are the personification of a hack. I voted for Menino but people like you actually hurt his image with your retarded comments.3:42 hit the nail right on the head, deep down you people must be resentful of the way you are treated by city hall. I wouldnt work for people like that,and I actually feel bad for you in a way,because you think you're connected but are merely being used.